Stochastic optimization under uncertainty helps maximizing the value of greenfield offshore gas asset

Tuesday, 19 January 2016 Read 3116 times
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Abstract:

An offshore gas field discovered with initial exploration well enters the appraisal phase with tangible uncertainties in resource base (a P10/P90 ratio of 3.1), well productivity (P10/P90 of 2.1) and cost estimates (-30%/+50% tolerance).

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The choice of LNG train capacity and development concept changeover point tremendously affects asset evaluation results used for attracting new project partners.

But how can those key parameters be elaborated by most scrupulous facility engineers given the three-fold uncertainty in resource base at this project stage?

Will such choices change under a random walk in oil prices or for different attitudes to risk?

Does maximization of project value and of production entitlement imply identical values of control parameters in these circumstances?

The challenges are resolved by sampling the search space with 54000 full cycle evaluation trials run in just over 13.5 hours using a combined power of:

- an exploration decision support tool with fit-for-purpose and fit-to-data Risks, Resource and Value assessment that honors all risks and uncertainties and

- a workflow management tool for decision optimization based on multiple realization approach powered by various Uncertainty & Optimization methods

 

The solution uses users’ range estimate inputs from all E&P asset evaluation disciplines: geologists, reservoir engineers, facility engineers and petroleum economists. The outcomes are mostly valued by the latter two groups.

 

The presentation uses a public case study of East Africa offshore.

 

A US patent is pending on this invention.

About Authors

Dmitry Surovtsev, Business Development Manager (GeoX), Schlumberger

 

Dmitry Surovtsev works as GeoX Business Development Manager in Integrated Software Solutions Department of Schlumberger.

Before that, he worked at various positions in operators and service companies in oil and gas and mining industries including Union Texas Petroleum (UK), Yukos (Russia), ENI (Kazakhstan), CIFAL (France/Russia), Rosatom’s Uranium-producing (Kazakhstan), Geoknowledge (Norway).

Dmitry is the author of a number of published papers on integrated assessment of risks, resources and value and decision-making support in exploration.

Dmitry earned his university degrees in the last decade of XX century (Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO) and London School of Economics (LSE).

 

 

Maxim Komin, Business Development Manager (MEPO), Schlumberger

Sergey Miklashevich, Systems Engineer, Schlumberger

 

 

 

 

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